We have 4 items in our April-May Newsletter for you!
1. MARKET SUMMARY & FORECAST: As owner of the R&R Team and as a graduate economist/research analyst, I take great pleasure in completing monthly analyzes of the *Dulles Market Corridor (DMC) residential real estate market and in providing the results of these analyzes to our clients in this blog. We strive to ensure that the analyzes are consistently accurate by using only highly reliable data. For those of you who have followed these analyzes over the past 19+ years, we believe that you will attest that the analyzes have been consistently accurate in providing real-time assessments of the local real estate market and in forecasting a near-term market prospectus.
The DMC real estate market thus far in 2018 has been driven by low inventory levels and surging buyer demand. At the beginning of the year, resale property inventory levels were only 20-25% of normal but in the past month has increased to 40-45% of normal levels for this time of year compared to the same time periods during past years. If inventory levels continue to stay low as is expected and after considering the other data indicators, we should continue having a very robust 2018 spring market. Our latest analysis shows that the low inventories levels combined with a 74% increase in buyer activity since January 1 have resulted in home prices appreciating on average at 1.7% per month over the past 3 months...and, the rate of appreciation is expected to increase even further as we continue through the spring market.
It is yet unclear as to the impact of the recently passed Federal tax cuts on the local real estate market, especially for homes priced above $1M. There are possible negative impacts that could be due to reduced tax write-offs for mortgage interest and real estate property taxes. The impact is unclear because Northern Virginia is one of the wealthiest areas with the highest per capita income levels in the United States, i.e., property taxes and mortgage interest write-offs may be of little concern locally to buyers who can afford homes in the $1M+ price range. We will continue to monitor and advise on this issue.
Our most recent analyzes of market absorption rates indicate that we continue to have a sellers market in the DMC. The market absorption rate for single family detached (SFD) homes indicates that we currently have only 1.3 months of available inventory, while the townhouse market absorption rate indicates 0.6 months of available inventory and condo data indicate 1.2 months of available inventory. FYI: Market absorption rate represents the number of months needed to sell off existing inventory for a particular property type based on recent buyer activity. Real estate pundits nationally and regionally indicate that market forces typically need to stabilize home inventory levels at a 3-to-4 month-supply-level to constitute a normal or balanced market (where economists say that supply and demand are in equilibrium). A market absorption rate that falls below this norm indicates a sellers market, while a rate that is above indicates a buyers market.
Besides low real estate inventory levels and surging buyer demand, another major factor that may have significant impacts on the real estate market are the increasing mortgage interest rates. Based on the upswing in U.S. economy performance indicators, the Federal Reserve Board at its March meeting increased the prime interest rate to 1.63% and economists predict that the Fed will make two more similar rate hikes yet during 2018. These increases are to offset inflationary pressures in the improving U.S. economy. Thus far in 2018, we have seen the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate increase nearly every week and this past week the Freddie Mac weekly survey indicated that this rate had increased to 4.47%, the highest rate to-date in 2018. Most pundits now believe that added Fed rate hikes will likely result in a 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate of 5.0% by the end of 2018. While these rate increases seem very likely, however, mortgage lenders have reported that they have not seen any reduction in applications for mortgage loans thus far in 2018. However, of concern, the increasing interest rates may serve as a knock-out punch for some homebuyers, particularly first-timers.
Our market prospectus for 2018 continues with us expecting to see continued job growth in the Capital Region, relatively low residential real estate inventory levels, increased buyer activity and higher but still attractive mortgage interest rates. With this prospectus, the DMC real estate market should continue to be quite robust in 2018.
Again, for sellers and buyers who are already active in the real estate market or planning to enter the marketplace in the near term, we highly recommend that you monitor for updates on the local market and review the latest detailed data for each of the important market status indicators on our Team website at this link: R&R Team Blog: Local Real Estate Market Status.
(The *Dulles Market Corridor (DMC) encompasses the large market area of Herndon/Oak Hill, Reston, Sterling/Potomac Falls/Dulles, Ashburn/ Broadlands/ Brambleton, Leesburg/Lansdowne, South Riding/ Chantilly (Loudoun County), Stone Ridge, Aldie/ Arcola and Chantilly (Fairfax County). The R&R Team has been tracking market data closely in the DMC for the past 19+ years.)
2. NEW MLS SEARCHPOINT SITE FOR YOU: We terminated our R&R Team search site at www.NorthernVirginiaDreamHomes.com effective March 1, 2018, and have already activated a new MLS searchpoint site for you to use that gives you access to 1000s of listings...all you need to do is log in at this link: new MLS searchpoint site.
We believe you will find this new MLS searchpoint site has a lot of enhancements...it is operated by our MLS provider and directly feeds real-time data from the same MLS database that we realtors use…you will be given the capability and flexibility to complete many of the same advanced searches performed by realtors, including map searches…you can complete your searches and review property listing information in English, Spanish or French…you can save any and all the listing searches that you may wish for later use…and you can elect to have automatic emails sent to you from your saved searches when new properties of interest come on the market.
To use the site, all you need to do is formally log-in initially as a new user. You will also find connecting links for this new MLS searchpoint site at several locations on our www.randrteam.com website so that you do not have to save or otherwise remember this link for later use.
We hope you will enjoy this new MLS searchpoint site and, if you need any assistance, please send us an email or call us at 703-625-5586.
3. POINTERS FOR BUYERS AND SELLERS WHO ARE GEARING UP: Here are some of our more popular R&R Team articles to assist you as a buyer and/or as a seller: …
When is The Best Time to Buy or to Sell Real Estate? We are frequently asked when is the best time to sell or to buy real estate. We share this article with hopes that it will help clear up some of the prevailing misconceptions that linger among both sellers and buyers as to when is the best time to sell or to buy real estate. …
Seller Preparations for the Market: Sellers who wisely complete pre-market preparations before listing a property are rewarded tremendously for their time and efforts. We hope that you these two articles helpful: the first is a getting started checklist for sellers and the second outlines detailed early-on actions for sellers. We are always available to assist you with our first-hand experience. …
Buyer Preparations for the Market: Reduce your stress and better ensure your success in buying your dream home by using these two articles: one article is our getting started checklist for buyers and the second one is our detailed early-on actions for buyers.
Also, please remember that we have NEARLY 20 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE to help you. If you have any questions, please feel free to call us at 703-625-5586 or send us an email.
4. ASSORTED REAL ESTATE POTPOURRI: Hopefully, you will find one or more of these real estate-related topics of possible interest.…
- How Much Home Can You Really Afford? So, you are getting ready to buy your first home and you feel like you are at the mercy of the market…and your mortgage lender. In some ways, it might even feel like they are working against each other, especially if you are in a really hot market in which you cannot qualify for the amount you would need to buy what you want. This article examines the issue and factors of how much home can you really afford.
- Much More to Mortgages Than Interest Rates: There is a significant consumer misconception that mortgages are all about interest rates. Find the lowest rate and you have got a great mortgage…Wrong! Yes, the sign-up interest rate can be important but there is a lot more to consider. The many factors and decisions involved in mortgages determine what the mortgage loan will be like to live with now and in the years of home ownership ahead. Will you be house rich and cash poor? Will you have manageable monthly payments and low mortgage costs? The difference between these two extremes lies in how effectively borrowers select the type, features and interest rate pattern when they arrange the mortgage loan. This article addresses the factors you need to consider when selecting a mortgage loan.
- 9 Home Improvements That Can Help (and Hurt) Value: Home improvements can be costly and demanding while there are some home improvements you can do yourself. taken as very demanding action, but there are also some ways of home improvement you can do yourself. Therefore, before you start with any improvements, see what improvements are the most needed in your home. Nowadays, a big attraction is an energy-efficient home which saves a lot of energy and reduces energy costs. On the other hand, maintenance problems and pest or bug infestations are a major turn off and should be looked into ASAP. This article provides advice you can use to improve the value of your home and to feel more comfortable and cozy about the process.
- Get Your Home Summer-Ready Now Before It Gets Scorching: Now is a great time to start thinking about summer and getting your home prepared. Paying attention to a few maintenance items can give you a leg up on the season so you do not need to wait in line for repairs once the summer heat hits. This article provides a reminder list of items to address now to beat the summer heat.
We very much appreciate your continued support and hope that you find our newsletters helpful. Please feel free to pass this newsletter along to your friend and associates and please let us know if there is any particular subject you would like us to address in a future newsletter. Kindly send us your questions or comments in an email or call 703-625-5586. Thank you.
Very Respectfully,… .
Ron Layton, Realtor
B.S. & M.S.+ degrees, Licensed in Virginia
Owner, The R&R Team, Inc., 19+ YEARS EXPERIENCE
Awarded Life Top Producer, NVAR Multi-Million Dollar Sales Club
Inducted into RE/MAX Hall of Fame
Affiliated with & Empowered by: United Real Estate
10780 Parkridge Blvd, Suite #80, Reston, VA 20191
Cel: 703-625-5586, Fax: 1-703-997-8772