Buyer Real Estate Activity Is Super-Surging in The Dulles Market Corridor!!!
As owner of The R&R Team and as a graduate economist/ research analyst, I take great pleasure in completing monthly analyzes of the Dulles Market Corridor (DMC)* (defined below) residential real estate market and in providing the results of these analyzes to our clients. Our analyzes and market forecasts have proven to be consistently accurate over the past 22+ years...we believe that you may find the results of our most recent analysis and forecast for the DMC real estate market to be of interest in the midst of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
MARKET SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK: Overall, in spite of the continuing COVID-19 pandemic restrictions, DMC residential real estate market activity is super-surging and is being driven by low inventory levels, increasing but inarguably low mortgage interest rates, very robust buyer demand and, to a lesser extent, impacts from COVID-19. Market data indicate that new residential housing listings in the DMC increased by 80% in the past 30 days while buyer contractual activity increased by 26% versus the previous month. While we normally anticipate that the number of listings coming to market would increase after the new year, robust buyer activity is buying up new inventory as fast as it becomes available and current inventory levels still remain extremely low at approximately 5% of normal expected levels for this time of year. Since early January, mortgage interest rates have continued to nudge up slightly each week but remain undeniably near historically low levels and this has served as a primary contributor to the surge in buyer demand that we have experienced. Overall, increased buyer activity resulted in 768 newly contracted properties in the DMC in the past 30 days versus 611 contracted properties the previous month. At present, also, newly contracted properties spent only 8 days on market on average in the past 30 days versus an average of 26 days on market the previous month. Likewise, market absorption rate analyses clearly indicate that we have a continuing SELLERS MARKET and market data show that DMC property value appreciation has increased to +1.3% per month on average in the past 3 months. The data further provide very strongly indications that property values should continue to appreciate even further as we proceed through the spring market.
Mortgage interest rates are increasing some but continue to be good for both home sellers and buyers. The 30-year mortgage interest rates have risen slightly each week since early January but remain in the realm of historical lows (since tracking started in 1971). Freddie Mac weekly survey reporting indicated another increase this past week resulting in an average rate of 3.05% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Freddie Mac also reports that while mortgage rates are expected to plateau in the near term, they are expected to yet increase modestly during the remainder of 2021 but should remain relatively low...the current rates are expected to support the continuing super-surge of homebuyer demand at least through the spring market. The housing market continues to be a bright spot in our national economic recovery while other segments appear to be just starting to improve.
Based on our most recent analyzes of DMC inventory levels and competitive buyer contractual activity, market absorption rates indicate that we continue to have a SELLERS MARKET in the DMC. Market absorption rate represents the number of months needed to sell off existing inventory for a particular property type based on recent buyer activity. The market absorption rate for single family detached (SFD) homes indicates that we currently have only 0.3 months of available inventory, while the townhouse (TH) market absorption rate indicates a supply of only 0.2 months of available inventory and condo data indicate only 0.5 months of available inventory. FYI: Real estate pundits nationally and regionally indicate that market forces typically need to stabilize home inventory levels at a 3-to-4 month-supply-level to constitute a normal or balanced market (a market situation where economists say that supply and demand are in equilibrium). A market absorption rate that falls below this norm indicates a sellers market, while a rate that is above this range indicates a buyers market.
In summary, based on our recent analysis of available market data and assuming that ongoing efforts to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic will succeed, our MARKET OUTLOOK for the DMC is as follows: to return to continuing JOB GROWTH in the Capital Region; to continue to experience LOWER THAN NORMAL INVENTORY LEVELS for residential property; to continue enjoying ROBUST BUYER DEMAND and competitive contractual activity in 2021; to enjoy relatively LOW MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES in 2021; to see no change from a continuing SELLERS MARKET; and to have APPRECIATING PROPERTY VALUES in 2021.
NOTE: The Dulles Market Corridor (DMC) encompasses the large market area of Herndon/Oak Hill, Reston, Sterling/Potomac Falls/Dulles, Ashburn/Broadlands/ Brambleton, Leesburg/Lansdowne, South Riding/ Chantilly (Loudoun County), Stone Ridge, Aldie/Arcola and Chantilly (Fairfax County). The R&R Team has been tracking market data closely in the *DMC for the past 22+ years.)
For more in-depth data and details from our analysis, please go to The R&R Team website at this link.
Have questions or comments? If so, please send us an email or call us at 703-625-5586.
Answers to Some Common Real Estate Questions
Here are answers to some common questions that we all have about real estate:
When is the best time to buy real estate? You can find your answer at this link.
When is the best time to sell real estate? You can find your answer at this link.
How do I know if I am hiring a really good listing agent? If the listing agent is not capable of performing the services to the standards provided at this link, then do not hire him or her.
How do I know if I am hiring a really good buyer agent? If the listing agent is not capable of performing the services to the standards provided at this link, then do not use this realtor.
Also, you should be able to find answers to your other real estate questions at this link. But, if we missed addressing any real estate question that you may have, please feel free to call us at 703-625-5586 or send us an email. We are always glad to help!
Your Way-Too-Eager, Probably Over-The-Top Early Spring Checklist
Let's face it – it's been a long winter, but brighter and warmer days are upon us. If you're the type of person who likes to be prepared, it isn't too early to gear up for lawn and garden season. Here are some tips to help you hit the ground running this spring:
Test the content of your soil with a kit. Soil test kits are designed to determine levels of PH, nitrogen, potassium, phosphorous, and other micro/macronutrients in your soil. An accurate test will tell you how to amend your soil for optimum growing.
Disinfect any tools that will touch vegetation to prevent the spread of bacteria, fungi, and soil pathogens. Soak lawnmower blades, shovels, trowels, rakes, and pruners for 30 minutes in a solution of 10% bleach and 90% water.
Tune up your lawnmower. If you didn't already do it in the fall, drain your lawnmower of old fuel. Add fresh fuel, replace the spark plugs, clean/replace the air filter, change the oil, and sharpen the blades.
Don't ignore the supporting cast. Service your leaf blower, edger and trimmer according to the manufacturer's guidelines. Stock up on trimmer line.
Hand tools need love too. Sharpen the edges on your pruners, clippers, and digging tools. Lubricate any hand tools that have moving metal parts, then lightly coat the metal with mineral oil to prevent rust. Sand any rough patches on wooden handles. Use linseed oil to seal the wood and prevent shrinking.
Check fittings and filters on irrigation systems. Check the rubber washers on your hoses, sprinklers, and nozzles for cracking and replace if necessary. Also, do not forget to call your lawn irrigation company early to schedule turn-on of your in-ground lawn sprinkler system.
Clean pots and planters to remove mold, fungi, and tiny pests. Use a brush and mild soap to clean, then rinse and let dry.
Inspect lawn furniture. Check wood parts for splintering, pests, rot, and other damage. Sand and repaint/re-stain these parts if necessary. Inspect cushions and covers and wash if possible.
Maintain fencing, gates, and other wood features. Replace warped or rotting pieces and repaint/re-stain where needed.
Some of these tasks may seem over the top, but knocking them out now while the weather is still less-than-ideal will give you more time to relax and enjoy during the warmer days ahead.